Selection of an Ensemble of Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models of the CMIP-6 Project for estimating possible runoff changes in the Volga and Kama basins

In modern conditions of climate change and increasing pressure on water resources, river forecasting is becoming one the urgent tasks rational use. The main tool for long-term characteristics prediction are Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCM). this paper, we assessed quality a number climatic by CMIP-6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6) AOGCMs Volga Kama basins in order to access possibility their use runoff 21st century forecasting. A comparison was made data produced models period 1985-2014 ERA5 reanalysis (temperature precipitation) as well with observational runoff. reproduction error average values, standard deviations, coincidence series trends evaluated. It shown that demonstrate very different balance results. When using these predict possible changes flow future, it necessary take into account uncertainties apply methods reduce impact systematic errors.